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Beaufort (Sg. Padas) Flood Modelling

posted Sep 8, 2019, 6:49 AM by jeffery jim

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I am about to conclude my conference paper on Beaufort flood modelling. It was a study I conducted close to zero-cent cost (except for my time) and yield a satisfactory result. The flood model calibration is quite close to the actual scenario without any bathymetric survey and so on. The flood level calibration is off by 0.07m or 70mm, so I can assume it is significantly accurate considering the model involves closed to 9,000 km².

The call for paper took place a month ago and this is not my thesis, it is just a second paper for my second proceeding within a period of 5 days with two different organizers. I am not here to seduce you to join these conferences since both are closed and were opened mainly for specialist within the academia world, government bodies/agencies, NGOs and the industry.

What I want to share here is the outcome during storm event for Padas River, mainly at the Beaufort floodplain. Without proper mitigations, for upstream storm case (heavy precipitation at Ulu Padas and Catchment), you will see the rise of water between 4.07m (4m at Kg. Cina and Beaufort town - as reported by DID based on 2014 flood) for 2 Years ARI, 4.78m for 50 Years ARI and 5.64m for 100 Years ARI.

It would be even worst if both catchment areas (8,800km²) and flood plain (224.65km² based on spatial water movement) experienced extreme storm. We are looking at maximum depth of 8.65m during 2 Years ARI, 11.26m for 50 Years ARI and 11.20m for 100 Years ARI although the mean would be between 6m to 8m for all cases. This has yet to include other determinants such as climate change, dam spillway discharge and inefficiency of hydraulic structures.

I just hope all the agencies, policy proponents and those who are responsible would listen to me attentively so that no life is at stake.